Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x210c45d89e8c105e302c89fba7422e45f53236b6f552be8fc0a5518ced800614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 53c | 12,793$6,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,778.66 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 47c | 12,621$5,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,689.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 6,371$3,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,372.57 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…da1abacked Yes | 52c | 4,913$2,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 53c | 4,639$2,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,457.6 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 48c | 1,834$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.62 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.76 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 48c | 1,235$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.75 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 51c | 866.35$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.85 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 51c | 675.31$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.03 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 49c | 485.62$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.95 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 47c | 406.85$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.7 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 52c | 367.3$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.82 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed No | 53c | 354.72$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 47c | 350$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 48c | 267$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 12c | 198.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 47c | 148$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -5.7wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2692backed Yes | 67c | 147$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed Yes | 71c | 131.28$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 52c | 58.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 49c | 51.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b5…2794backed Yes | 47c | 46.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…2276backed Yes | 40c | 39.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf4…323cbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed No | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 53c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 78c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw?No won
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.