Asian League · resolved market
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-07-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12eb24a777846b11640ed9dcddc1f27d59f6bbdc1b224c24689df2e85cfd0c50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 7c | 3,096$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.71 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,959$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.76 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 5c | 2,544$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.05 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,738$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.47 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes | 9c | 787.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Yes | 8c | 734.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 445$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 12c | 359.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 10c | 315$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 13c | 299.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 143 | 10.5%15 W · 128 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Yes | 7c | 285.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 9c | 279.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…4a1bbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31f3…0eacbacked Yes | 18c | 238.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 13c | 216.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…29ccbacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…eb51backed Yes | 11c | 166.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +95%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…0d5bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Yes | 15c | 74.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 16c | 73.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-07-17?this page
- Will Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Henan FC win on 2026-07-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.