Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x131e994b2440b021893ec76976ec237414dd3ebdca2b919de5a4a569a7974948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 27c | 3,704$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.08 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 1,323$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.21 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 998$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.46 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 784.36$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.98 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 508.9$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 498.02$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.49 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 494.99$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 15c | 310$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 156$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 155$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 76c | 114.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…4134backed No | 74c | 77.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0d…0d74backed No | 74c | 70.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…e33ebacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 26c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…ec43backed Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…df55backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 73c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-22?No won
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.