Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf45d32913eb388b542ad9afb64d961f9ea2766d7308c7e78b7add7b4080348e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.99 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 3,980$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 26c | 2,008$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.69 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 73c | 1,299$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.65 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 73c | 1,298$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.46 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 71c | 943.13$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.51 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 72c | 625$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 29c | 624.2$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.74 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 31c | 286.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 4c | 257.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…b7e2backed No | 73c | 215.53$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +275.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 70c | 190$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 69c | 184.45$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 27c | 134.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 72c | 104.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ef53backed Yes | 32c | 97.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 29c | 68.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 68c | 65.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 22c | 59.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…b474backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed No | 80c | 40.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 77c | 34.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ec…e4b4backed No | 73c | 30.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…dc85backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6d…a980backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 69c | 20.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked No | 71c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-22?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?No won
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.