Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ilves Tampere vs. FC Déifferdeng 03: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1329ebcf67d9cac317fd09943bab376f6d2d98d317d13630d5e9baa49c336d5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 42c | 1,188$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.63 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 1,099$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.04 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 17c | 1,034$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.78 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 44c | 1,021$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.95 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 8c | 849.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…545bbacked Under | 53c | 811.19$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.53 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 644.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.13 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 74c | 566.82$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 28c | 550.46$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.43 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…6044backed Under | 61c | 516.22$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 50c | 507.33$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.67 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 58c | 419.25$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.98 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…771cbacked Over | 9c | 342$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 33c | 220.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…5c04backed Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Over | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Over | 17c | 128.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 280 | 12.9%36 W · 244 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Over | 39c | 119.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Under | 46c | 113.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 73c | 96.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 79c | 62.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…b567backed Under | 65c | 61.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Under | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 34c | 57.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 41c | 49.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 54c | 36.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…b24abacked Under | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Under | 79c | 14.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ilves Tampere vs. FC Déifferdeng 03: O/U 4.5this page
- Ilves Tampere vs. FC Déifferdeng 03: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Ilves Tampere vs. FC Déifferdeng 03: FC Déifferdeng 03 O/U 1.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. FC Déifferdeng 03: FC Déifferdeng 03 O/U 2.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. FC Déifferdeng 03: Ilves Tampere O/U 0.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. FC Déifferdeng 03: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. FC Déifferdeng 03: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. FC Déifferdeng 03: O/U 2.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. FC Déifferdeng 03: O/U 3.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. FC Déifferdeng 03: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Ilves Tampere (-1.5)Ilves Tampere won
- Spread: Ilves Tampere (-2.5)FC Déifferdeng 03 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.