South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Caracas FC vs. Independiente Santa Fe end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x134fa78ce66d35aa17d90219a59accaaa5ab66dfa65fe11048202f056597dae1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 67c | 6,436$4,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,133.96 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 5,481$1,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.46 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…4418backed Yes | 30c | 2,031$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 29c | 1,077$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.24 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 71c | 1,076$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.06 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 964.57$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.4 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 703.74$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.28 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed No | 71c | 408$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 33c | 394.47$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 33c | 394.47$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 30c | 392.39$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 33c | 322$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.17 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked No | 71c | 207.73$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 70c | 99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 73c | 39.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 71c | 33.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 71c | 30.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 35c | 30.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 26.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 25.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed No | 79c | 22.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked No | 60c | 22.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 46 | 80.4%37 W · 9 L | +14.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 79c | 20.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315d…1b39backed No | 71c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Caracas FC vs. Independiente Santa Fe end in a draw?this page
- Will Caracas FC win on 2026-07-30?No won
- Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-07-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.