Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1363972ea578b21b2332ae9d51b96c4cde32a8f4babc8a45a4dac5d5a56407a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 968.88$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.17 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 77c | 949$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.8 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…75aebacked Yes | 3c | 595.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 15c | 536.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…052dbacked Yes | 23c | 428.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 368.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 279.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…0707backed Yes | 9c | 219.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 22c | 216.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 187.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 20c | 68.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b1…bc01backed No | 79c | 38.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…e4acbacked No | 71c | 28.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…66b1backed No | 80c | 14.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 10%?this page
- Will Steve Hilton win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election?No won
- Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%?No won
- Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 5%?No won
- Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by 5–10%?No won
- Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.