Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e6b7e449679d42a9e7de019bf678cf417b392fb07148a928e656712f7e98c5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 46c | 546.58$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.47 | 139 | 19.4%27 W · 112 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 73c | 523.28$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.74 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…75aebacked No | 27c | 510$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 64c | 395.72$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 305.64$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.71 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 55c | 200.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.14 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 166$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 24c | 97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 80.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…ef6fbacked Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 57c | 79.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 16c | 67.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…f823backed Yes | 53c | 66.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 32c | 66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked No | 48c | 63.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f6…09bcbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba83…996abacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…3679backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 57.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…52c9backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…a5a8backed Yes | 45c | 46.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cec…6dd3backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x618c…1d52backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…ce32backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 32.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 55c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…beaabacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca24…686bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…e294backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f0…78babacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f73…04d0backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…99a1backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…401cbacked Yes | 76c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 57c | 17.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%?this page
- Will Steve Hilton win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election?No won
- Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%?No won
- Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 5%?No won
- Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by 5–10%?No won
- Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 10%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.