South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CD Riestra (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1382cefa12c22054801d7a12e61c165c51707ac9f03e0b95a3b046d8aa1aef8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagroof CD Riestra, CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,144 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked CD Riestra | 15c | 1,186$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.88 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed CD Riestra | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…82d1backed CD Riestra | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked CD Riestra | 14c | 264.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed CD Riestra | 15c | 162.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed CD Riestra | 15c | 159.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…a576backed CA San Lorenzo de Almagro | 75c | 157.16$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed CD Riestra | 15c | 135.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed CD Riestra | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked CD Riestra | 15c | 112.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked CD Riestra | 11c | 107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed CD Riestra | 15c | 86.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed CD Riestra | 15c | 82.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CD Riestra (-1.5)this page
- CD Riestra vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CD Riestra vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Riestra vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Riestra vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Riestra vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-2.5)CD Riestra won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.