World Politics · resolved market
Will Brazil beat Paraguay?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13b72929a74063224d125624de0bd3a1a699510302cb4d998ae838a2e96932a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 31c | 5,556$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +114%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 69c | 4,873$3,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 30c | 2,530$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…38eabacked Yes | 70c | 1,750$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 70c | 1,419$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…fe6bbacked Yes | 70c | 1,290$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 75c | 670.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 30c | 567.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +194.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 26c | 510.16$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…b783backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 30c | 442.25$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 31c | 370$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 23c | 163.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 70c | 142.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61cf…3c52backed Yes | 75c | 83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5125…933abacked Yes | 71c | 58.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…cc30backed Yes | 70c | 44.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6554…bbd6backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Yes | 70c | 40.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ae…c079backed Yes | 71c | 23.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Yes | 71c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51c…6de3backed Yes | 71c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brazil beat Paraguay?this page
- Will Brazil vs. Paraguay end in a draw?No won
- Will Paraguay beat Brazil?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.