Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13c58389c58e311f9cd517f49c86907951d4b332e64a1262f550f0af0e098d2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 4c | 1,732$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 6c | 954.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 8c | 899.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 15c | 454.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 357.95$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.14 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 29c | 324.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 71c | 294.78$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd442…f946backed Under | 79c | 214.2$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 22c | 212.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 79c | 199.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 15c | 189.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 21c | 103.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 21c | 103.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 21c | 103.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 21c | 101.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Under | 79c | 96.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…c26abacked Over | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 24c | 59.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Over | 63c | 59.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 77c | 49.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 30.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 140 | 57.1%80 W · 60 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)FC Lorient won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-2.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)FC Lorient won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.