Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdec7164a71a36c896fe0b12beab226267fee16bb8b45e77b26c641e9f4a661f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 71c | 2,877$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.21 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 43c | 1,888$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 21c | 1,437$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.9 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…06cfbacked Over | 31c | 1,110$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 65c | 1,100$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.99 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed Under | 67c | 980.2$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 787.02$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.77 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 78c | 745.03$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.77 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under | 58c | 686.4$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 30c | 518.24$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.59 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 478.04$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.65 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 39c | 459.08$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.89 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 42c | 445$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 36c | 398.69$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 59c | 362$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.42 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 32c | 230.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 39c | 224.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Over | 37c | 213.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Under | 71c | 203.56$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 12c | 203.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…16c3backed Over | 34c | 198.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…c26abacked Over | 42c | 172.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 60c | 162.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 38c | 144.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…3670backed Under | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 31c | 116.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 54c | 107.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 40c | 99.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…04fbbacked Over | 13c | 90.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 36c | 80.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 46c | 71.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 69.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 40c | 64.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 60c | 56.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 38c | 48.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 62c | 47.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 38c | 45.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 39c | 44.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 37c | 43.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec5…9bc4backed Over | 41c | 38.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…3458backed Under | 65c | 37.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 66c | 36.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 59c | 36.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 47c | 34.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 63c | 32.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 35c | 30.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 35c | 30.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 35c | 30.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…d4fbbacked Under | 59c | 29.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 140 | 57.1%80 W · 60 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Under | 61c | 18.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 67c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 70c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 70c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)FC Lorient won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-2.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)FC Lorient won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.