Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yoshihito Nishioka vs Jaume Munar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13d3cbbfafe38d9bf47381b6e05c6b983f36610c5030f5277504ab85d78a644d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Munarof Nishioka, Munar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nishioka | 10c | 3,015$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.91 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Munar | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e957backed Munar | 64c | 1,628$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.78 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Munar | 64c | 1,278$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Munar | 61c | 1,267$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.18 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nishioka | 34c | 1,241$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.01 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Nishioka | 36c | 1,111$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Munar | 65c | 777$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Nishioka | 35c | 777$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Munar | 61c | 678.56$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.89 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Nishioka | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Nishioka | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.9 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Nishioka | 34c | 587.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.31 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Nishioka | 37c | 472$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…392cbacked Nishioka | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nishioka | 33c | 316.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Munar | 62c | 298.49$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nishioka | 35c | 282$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Nishioka | 27c | 270.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Nishioka | 40c | 254.29$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nishioka | 34c | 240.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Nishioka | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…9b81backed Nishioka | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Nishioka | 37c | 194.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Nishioka | 41c | 171$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Nishioka | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Munar | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Munar | 69c | 145.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Munar | 64c | 136.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Nishioka | 35c | 115.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Nishioka | 44c | 114.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 650 | 40%260 W · 390 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…b3a4backed Munar | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Munar | 61c | 109.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Munar | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nishioka | 37c | 82.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Munar | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Munar | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Nishioka | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nishioka | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Munar | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Munar | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Munar | 68c | 47.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Munar | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Munar | 60c | 34.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Munar | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.