NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x143ffdd6831d20fc7e5acb097d2e1374a39d2ef99bf73dd581c289aac73d8801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Oilers, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Oilers | 42c | 6,767$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,817.98 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e7…52cabacked Penguins | 61c | 4,242$2,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Penguins | 58c | 3,245$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.99 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penguins | 58c | 2,606$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.58 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Oilers | 39c | 1,155$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.2 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Oilers | 39c | 900$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Oilers | 39c | 756$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.84 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Oilers | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Oilers | 42c | 333.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Oilers | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Penguins | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Oilers | 41c | 241.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Penguins | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b33…d412backed Penguins | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Oilers | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins | 61c | 85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Penguins | 60c | 66.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Penguins | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Penguins | 59c | 63.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 164 | 63.4%104 W · 60 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Penguins | 61c | 55.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Oilers | 41c | 51.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Penguins | 69c | 50.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Oilers | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Penguins | 58c | 36.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…1f46backed Oilers | 41c | 28.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 58c | 19.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. OilersPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.