Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x144e63c4bd0952427d3eecee4c36b425df7e05a671c8da280e32fd3cffdc3ccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 0c | 13,557$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…b414backed Yes | 0c | 13,502$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 403.2$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 249.59$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.89 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 223.38$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…c51bbacked Yes | 51c | 204.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 184.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 32c | 152.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 70c | 121.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 106.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed Yes | 53c | 99.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 86.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 48c | 82.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 46c | 80.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…3ee4backed Yes | 41c | 75.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 45c | 62.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…62adbacked Yes | 42c | 55.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 45c | 54.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 38c | 54.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 69c | 48.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 42c | 38.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 43c | 33.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 56c | 32.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 46c | 30.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…0307backed No | 63c | 30.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes | 39c | 30.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…70f0backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 27.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 27.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 27.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 43c | 26.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…6c58backed Yes | 53c | 26.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 60c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…6b01backed Yes | 56c | 22.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 73c | 20.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.