Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x146c7dad75583e2ceb5e47195ee09cfea71760c53629dd84d4b294312abe13ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rinderknechof Rinderknech, Medjedovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Medjedovic | 0c | 3,761$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rinderknech | 49c | 1,442$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.46 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Rinderknech | 57c | 1,111$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.17 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rinderknech | 55c | 928.31$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.52 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Medjedovic | 37c | 920$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.16 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Medjedovic | 66c | 900$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rinderknech | 56c | 883.18$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.52 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Medjedovic | 39c | 868.25$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.56 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Rinderknech | 45c | 672.45$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.85 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Rinderknech | 45c | 600$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Medjedovic | 54c | 599.61$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.79 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Rinderknech | 42c | 595$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.1 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Rinderknech | 59c | 550.4$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.75 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rinderknech | 42c | 492.03$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.38 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Medjedovic | 41c | 486.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Medjedovic | 58c | 482.76$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Medjedovic | 38c | 322$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Medjedovic | 47c | 303$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.73 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Medjedovic | 56c | 231.46$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.16 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Medjedovic | 47c | 214.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Rinderknech | 43c | 175.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Medjedovic | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…0e50backed Medjedovic | 50c | 166.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.15 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed Rinderknech | 45c | 152.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Rinderknech | 44c | 120.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Rinderknech | 59c | 110.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Medjedovic | 58c | 92.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Medjedovic | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Medjedovic | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Rinderknech | 47c | 64.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Medjedovic | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Rinderknech | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Medjedovic | 54c | 43.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 253 | 42.7%108 W · 145 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Medjedovic | 54c | 43.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rinderknech | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Medjedovic | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Rinderknech | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…ddd7backed Rinderknech | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.