Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. UC Davis Aggies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x147a809dbc4a64dca3ea549c2b6f3483c88c88c28600ac63ffc189d1b7a8887f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bakersfield Roadrunnersof Bakersfield Roadrunners, UC Davis Aggies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bakersfield Roadrunners | 49c | 2,827$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.22 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Bakersfield Roadrunners | 16c | 2,385$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.51 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed UC Davis Aggies | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed UC Davis Aggies | 43c | 800.9$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.13 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bakersfield Roadrunners | 55c | 533.44$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.63 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Bakersfield Roadrunners | 18c | 367.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.34 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…7cc8backed UC Davis Aggies | 40c | 348.48$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed UC Davis Aggies | 60c | 254$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.53 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked UC Davis Aggies | 50c | 238.52$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.26 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e4…8e33backed UC Davis Aggies | 9c | 225.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked UC Davis Aggies | 11c | 221$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 88 | 14.8%13 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Bakersfield Roadrunners | 29c | 220.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed UC Davis Aggies | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed UC Davis Aggies | 77c | 176.2$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.24 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked UC Davis Aggies | 64c | 116.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 235 | 44.7%105 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…a993backed Bakersfield Roadrunners | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked UC Davis Aggies | 37c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Bakersfield Roadrunners | 28c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed UC Davis Aggies | 70c | 30.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…361bbacked UC Davis Aggies | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 98 | 21.4%21 W · 77 L | -17.7wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed UC Davis Aggies | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…22efbacked UC Davis Aggies | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. UC Davis Aggiesthis page
- Spread: UC Davis Aggies (-10.5)Bakersfield Roadrunners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.