MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14b1e3fed1ad6a77c7bf2f2582b048d1a558ab1c192a46e5f4d6584a63e4f547
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 3,529$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 2,354$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.08 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 42c | 1,026$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.81 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Over | 54c | 737.99$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.48 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 61c | 558.1$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Over | 56c | 473.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 440.91$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.38 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 27c | 309.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 74c | 306.8$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 54c | 262.73$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.85 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 59c | 117.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 54c | 112.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 52c | 72.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 62.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 54c | 56.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 68c | 49.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 54c | 48.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Over | 54c | 45.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 54c | 44.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 54c | 40.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 28c | 35.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 51c | 31.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 48c | 23.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.