MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c39f22ed57fe4bf213d736f9e583a18e49aa6f6fa29fe0b076e946a255c633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x808d…4689backed Over | 44c | 80,006$34,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,117.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 31,455$17,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,517.16 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Under | 56c | 30,000$16,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,800 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 57c | 7,361$4,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,186.66 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 57c | 4,934$2,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.27 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 52c | 3,852$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.15 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 57c | 3,715$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,117.6 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 57c | 1,739$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.21 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 1,201$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 44c | 1,072$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.56 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…3839backed Over | 51c | 761.35$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.11 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked Over | 43c | 566$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.62 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 3c | 523$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 57c | 432.79$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.12 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 57c | 312.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.61 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 297.25$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.27 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 288.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Under | 57c | 258.16$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.15 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 57c | 256.37$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.13 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 57c | 229.02$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 60c | 198.04$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Under | 57c | 194.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.06 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 42c | 164.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.97 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 62c | 139.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 51c | 132$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 56c | 120.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked Under | 57c | 97.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 53c | 94.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 56c | 91.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…da99backed Under | 39c | 68.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 58c | 67.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 43c | 56.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Over | 44c | 54.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 51c | 44.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 58c | 36.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2db9…846cbacked Under | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 31.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…9b14backed Under | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 57c | 30.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 58c | 26.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 57c | 20.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 59c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.