Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Tomas Machac
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c62dc23b18daa617b988855370eeb8cb610700b7a2cfd565e3851b9df8fe35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Machacof Bellucci, Machac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bellucci | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Machac | 66c | 12,077$7,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,118.19 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bellucci | 37c | 11,898$4,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,431.17 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Machac | 71c | 3,638$2,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.21 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Bellucci | 19c | 2,910$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.38 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Machac | 67c | 2,751$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.72 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bellucci | 41c | 1,303$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.98 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Bellucci | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Machac | 74c | 869.13$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.2 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Bellucci | 41c | 867$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.8 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…4c0abacked Bellucci | 21c | 832.68$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Bellucci | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Bellucci | 35c | 364.55$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Machac | 65c | 318.4$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Bellucci | 42c | 277.31$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.47 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Machac | 71c | 141.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…6a3bbacked Bellucci | 25c | 115$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Bellucci | 13c | 111.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Machac | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Machac | 60c | 77.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Bellucci | 39c | 65.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Bellucci | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Bellucci | 40c | 51.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bellucci | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed Machac | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…ca5ebacked Bellucci | 44c | 38.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Machac | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bellucci | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…141cbacked Machac | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.