Cricket · resolved market
ICC WWC: Australia vs. South Africa (Oct 25)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15007d088fa793041397312d0f471b900a963f162bac4e0be5d20c494fc74a29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Australiaof Australia, South Africa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dfb…2398backed South Africa | 21c | 759.68$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.82 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked South Africa | 6c | 706.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked South Africa | 21c | 415.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked South Africa | 3c | 401.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…ec34backed South Africa | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Australia | 75c | 134.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed South Africa | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 21.6%30 W · 109 L | -14.6wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -41%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked South Africa | 20c | 109.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…5a2cbacked South Africa | 23c | 109.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…6d42backed South Africa | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Australia | 75c | 62.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963c…d9fcbacked South Africa | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Australia | 79c | 33.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 330 | 42.4%140 W · 190 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…537cbacked Australia | 76c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.