Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1509e483198a3810002d69b28e3039dfc1ad645313b072c80d7b40666a5fbbfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 78c | 404$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 30c | 369.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 71c | 293.43$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 20c | 270.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…8bc2backed No | 6c | 240.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 48c | 209.46$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 5c | 199.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…238cbacked No | 14c | 170.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 67c | 135.96$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 45c | 99.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 79c | 95.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked No | 16c | 93.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 30c | 84.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 26c | 75.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…6ae6backed Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 69.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 57c | 69.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 50c | 62.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x486d…c071backed No | 22c | 45.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…4161backed Yes | 77c | 45.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 51c | 41.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2042…643fbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…84cfbacked Yes | 49c | 40.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 55c | 39.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…5718backed No | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 65c | 38.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 55c | 35.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed No | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbc…04edbacked Yes | 50c | 31.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114c…a9ccbacked Yes | 46c | 26.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f5…029bbacked Yes | 46c | 25.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4e…778fbacked Yes | 48c | 25.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…f014backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…b49bbacked No | 49c | 24.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…9fa9backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…2fcfbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 39°F or below on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.