Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15172e17711202a81390c0de7d3dc3e136e14af09600b51278e3eea9fa6f7f65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 4c | 622.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 3c | 561.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 179.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 156.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 155.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 10c | 133.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 126.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 105.49$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 99.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 95.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…7249backed No | 55c | 91.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 13c | 89.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 63c | 87.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 87.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 83.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 43c | 82.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 70c | 81.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 46c | 76.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 34c | 76.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 65c | 74.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 16c | 71.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 56c | 50.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 64c | 44.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 39c | 43.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 29c | 38.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 34.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 42c | 34.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 69c | 34.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed No | 61c | 28.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 69c | 27.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 26.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 56c | 26.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…a35ebacked No | 62c | 24.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 24.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 60c | 18.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 62c | 18.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 69c | 15.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.