TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,658

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,463 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked San Diego Padres57c1,887$1,075 inWon+$811.891,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates43c1,782$772 inLost-$772.326,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego Padres27c496.5$132 inWon+$364.461,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates32c390.59$124 inLost-$124.512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates66c378.01$248 inLost-$247.629,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed San Diego Padres38c304.73$116 inWon+$189.2112257.4%70 W · 52 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Pittsburgh Pirates27c273.65$74 inLost-$73.8911149.5%55 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates62c255.72$159 inLost-$158.552,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Pittsburgh Pirates62c236.96$147 inLost-$146.9212850%64 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c6…55acbacked San Diego Padres38c235.43$89 inWon+$145.9710143.6%44 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres75c218.63$165 inWon+$54.055,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked San Diego Padres39c202.32$79 inWon+$123.3234145.2%154 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates42c181.13$76 inLost-$76.162,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates63c141.97$90 inLost-$89.962,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed San Diego Padres37c102.98$38 inWon+$64.5448339.8%192 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Pittsburgh Pirates63c100$63 inLost-$6359150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed San Diego Padres57c99.58$57 inWon+$42.687352.7%460 W · 413 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x754d…7c7bbacked San Diego Padres75c82.08$62 inWon+$20.52944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick68cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked San Diego Padres54c67.78$37 inWon+$31.2266749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e3…ff82backed San Diego Padres38c57.75$22 inWon+$36.093534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed San Diego Padres36c48.62$18 inWon+$31.1221847.7%104 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates62c48.33$30 inLost-$29.9633547.5%159 W · 176 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates36c40.12$14 inLost-$14.31,05750.2%531 W · 526 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed San Diego Padres71c39.3$28 inWon+$11.478146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked San Diego Padres60c38.98$23 inWon+$15.591,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed San Diego Padres34c38.66$13 inWon+$25.6416351.5%84 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pittsburgh Pirates70c37.45$26 inLost-$26.3765050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed San Diego Padres38c35$13 inWon+$21.72,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeb7…ca4abacked San Diego Padres38c27.83$11 inWon+$17.1713256.1%74 W · 58 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbe7…c233backed San Diego Padres40c26.51$11 inWon+$15.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd05…61d6backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c22.31$12 inLost-$11.753141.9%13 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked San Diego Padres52c20.54$11 inWon+$9.8655464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3c86…456bbacked San Diego Padres61c18.24$11 inWon+$7.1111854.2%64 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.