MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cec823f7469daca575e31cdf9a88ac900d062f724db78871c43f493a5f6f17a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x795f…7bcebacked Under | 0c | 4,045$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 33c | 374.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.31 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 68c | 358.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.25 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 78c | 357.46$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.32 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cb…4789backed Over | 46c | 297.06$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.38 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 61c | 296.43$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.62 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 20c | 245.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.32 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 49c | 227.89$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 55c | 204$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 201.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 39c | 189.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.88 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 54c | 179.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee03backed Under | 65c | 150.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 125.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…ed27backed Over | 23c | 124.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 25c | 118.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 35c | 111.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed Under | 64c | 103.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked Over | 54c | 90.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 38c | 88.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 37c | 81.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4007backed Under | 77c | 78.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 45c | 63.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Under | 64c | 50.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 36c | 50.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 71c | 46.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…9fcdbacked Under | 63c | 46.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 40c | 45.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 61c | 40.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 64c | 34.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 60c | 26.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Under | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 56c | 25.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 24.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Under | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 75c | 20.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Under | 71c | 19.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 61c | 17.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh PiratesSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-5.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.