South American Leagues · resolved market
AA Estudiantes vs. CA Banfield: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1529d29033c233d3b79f0d97956b37177ffaaed393d65a18d5dc6ea1520422a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 14,192$9,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,492.05 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 28c | 12,500$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.98 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 50c | 3,330$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.88 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 69c | 708.22$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.87 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 51c | 442.37$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.14 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 251.12$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 64c | 225.09$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 70c | 162.7$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 69c | 147.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 69c | 145.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 58c | 133$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 66c | 122.17$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 38c | 103.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Over | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 67c | 70.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 64c | 68.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 60c | 60.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 64c | 60.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e7…090fbacked Under | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a5…307abacked Over | 44c | 33.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f4…12dabacked Over | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 70c | 29.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…a242backed Under | 72c | 28.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 70c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…b401backed Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 73c | 26.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0bd8backed Over | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Under | 74c | 18.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Banfield: O/U 0.5this page
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Banfield: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Banfield: O/U 1.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Banfield: O/U 2.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Banfield: O/U 3.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Banfield: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Banfield (-1.5)AA Estudiantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.