CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup 1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x153cc4986a1ebde6a4d786d6306366f2c196b13f5d7e952b29a0c3d7108033de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- THUNDER dOWNUNDERof THUNDER dOWNUNDER, Ground Zero
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe81e…38c7backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 67c | 813.12$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…6b53backed Ground Zero | 33c | 606.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.02 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Ground Zero | 7c | 535.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…dc2abacked Ground Zero | 30c | 391.79$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Ground Zero | 17c | 383.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab65…4a03backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 70c | 240.79$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…a23ebacked Ground Zero | 19c | 215$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Ground Zero | 18c | 199.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d8…e34fbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 68c | 153.07$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Ground Zero | 23c | 141.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 62c | 115.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 464 | 47.6%221 W · 243 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc25…4fa8backed Ground Zero | 38c | 91.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ground Zero | 33c | 83.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…1a20backed Ground Zero | 18c | 70.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Ground Zero | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Ground Zero | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c83…0f34backed Ground Zero | 36c | 50.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…6633backed Ground Zero | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf45a…e087backed Ground Zero | 45c | 49.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…5327backed Ground Zero | 37c | 47.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…bde6backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 68c | 46.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 587 | 62.2%365 W · 222 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…0ba1backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 66c | 33.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup 1 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero - Map 2 WinnerGround Zero won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.