CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x153d5bbd7dfd1e9a3daf1c377167735fe6b0457ad169a8607eaefa8848c7a472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Roosterof Rooster, Arcade Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,988 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33c6…6daabacked Arcade Esports | 4c | 1,535$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…860abacked Arcade Esports | 4c | 1,335$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Rooster | 57c | 1,150$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.22 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…652ebacked Arcade Esports | 36c | 752$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Arcade Esports | 42c | 705.36$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.2 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…7dbebacked Arcade Esports | 39c | 610$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Arcade Esports | 21c | 603.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arcade Esports | 40c | 544.2$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.23 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…c16ebacked Arcade Esports | 36c | 438.04$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…d21fbacked Rooster | 64c | 408$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…7af9backed Rooster | 64c | 384$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…f137backed Arcade Esports | 27c | 364.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…b740backed Rooster | 64c | 344$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd8…14cfbacked Rooster | 61c | 310$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Arcade Esports | 44c | 310$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…1d90backed Rooster | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…c1bcbacked Rooster | 64c | 219$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Arcade Esports | 10c | 193.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Rooster | 58c | 187.12$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Rooster | 57c | 165.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -14.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Arcade Esports | 43c | 150.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 456 | 39.3%179 W · 277 L | -29.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac8…45c4backed Arcade Esports | 22c | 145$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…b819backed Rooster | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…7858backed Arcade Esports | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…6bfebacked Rooster | 56c | 72.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Arcade Esports | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Arcade Esports | 52c | 66.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc874…54a3backed Rooster | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Rooster | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 336 | 57.1%192 W · 144 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rooster | 60c | 48.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Rooster | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Arcade Esports | 30c | 40.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Arcade Esports | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Arcade Esports | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Rooster | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 223 | 24.7%55 W · 168 L | -21.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Arcade Esports | 35c | 29.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Arcade Esports | 41c | 25.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…2368backed Rooster | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Rooster | 64c | 24.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Rooster | 63c | 24.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Rooster | 59c | 23.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 324 | 43.5%141 W · 183 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf4…a399backed Rooster | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…a673backed Rooster | 80c | 22.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Rooster | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…23acbacked Rooster | 80c | 20.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…bf4bbacked Rooster | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…155fbacked Rooster | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9036…3c3dbacked Rooster | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #2 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Arcade Esports - Map 1 WinnerRooster won
- Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Arcade Esports - Map 2 WinnerRooster won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.