Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1556599de6cda9133a3d2f33f1a86e691639c8150ab29ed48fe44aec9568150a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 248.51$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 145.51$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 55c | 136.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 135.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 42c | 116.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…0d9dbacked Yes | 73c | 100.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 99.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 57c | 74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 72.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 65c | 69.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 55c | 64.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 60.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 44.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 38.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 67c | 30.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 41c | 29.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 70c | 28.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 22.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 20.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 17.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.