Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64e35a60a8e8296f75d340c430f247517dd0df9d1087d94f0d6536dea3b51101
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 716.46$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 63c | 451.04$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.75 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 447.14$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.2 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 257.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 64c | 252.12$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.43 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 34c | 247$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.86 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 15c | 229.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.95 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 158.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 11c | 150.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.17 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 59c | 147.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.05 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 139.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 135.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 125.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 118.03$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 104.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…b219backed Yes | 12c | 101.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 17c | 87.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6e…0f70backed Yes | 14c | 87.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 21c | 84.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 58c | 83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 73.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 59c | 73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 71.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 34c | 61.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 39c | 49.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 60c | 49.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 41c | 49.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…99f0backed Yes | 33c | 44.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 75c | 39.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 39c | 38.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…9383backed No | 61c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 36c | 35.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 32.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 49c | 32.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 64c | 31.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 43c | 29.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 44c | 26.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 23.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 55c | 23.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 23.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 58c | 22.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 22.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 20.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.