College Football · resolved market
Spread: Air Force (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1569e2180d538065f4f07713332af5667fa6272a226e491b01c4665cee89f8e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawaiiof Air Force, Hawaii
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Hawaii | 51c | 8,019$4,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,897.58 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Air Force | 49c | 6,046$2,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,962.58 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Hawaii | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.81 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Air Force | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.81 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Air Force | 48c | 1,179$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.92 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Air Force | 49c | 768$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.32 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Air Force | 48c | 700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Air Force | 48c | 700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Air Force | 48c | 350$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Air Force | 52c | 315$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.95 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Air Force | 48c | 223.35$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Hawaii | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Air Force | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Hawaii | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Air Force (-6.5)this page
- Hawaii vs. Air ForceHawaii won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.