College Football · resolved market
Hawaii vs. Air Force
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25ac36d8bad5da418bad8134bf70a2461b145f8673f329c34ac991bcd1827ff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawaiiof Hawaii, Air Force
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawaii | 34c | 15,198$5,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,028.85 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Air Force | 66c | 15,000$9,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,900 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Hawaii | 31c | 1,210$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.89 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Air Force | 69c | 943.38$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.93 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Air Force | 66c | 871.95$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.67 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Air Force | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Air Force | 69c | 423$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.87 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Hawaii | 28c | 418.06$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Air Force | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Air Force | 69c | 380.65$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.65 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Hawaii | 31c | 380.65$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.65 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Air Force | 41c | 335$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hawaii | 70c | 290$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Hawaii | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Air Force | 56c | 177.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Hawaii | 58c | 161.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Hawaii | 61c | 151.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Air Force | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Hawaii | 31c | 64.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Hawaii | 29c | 64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Air Force | 69c | 62.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Air Force | 69c | 62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Hawaii | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Hawaii | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Air Force | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Air Force | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…4b84backed Air Force | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Air Force | 69c | 17.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawaii vs. Air Forcethis page
- Spread: Air Force (-6.5)Hawaii won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.