Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x156d1201cc87e5a351ce0ea88edb603b213107eb8ab67c1f5a66e8894410534a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Auger-Aliassime, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Auger-Aliassime | 36c | 863.3$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.52 | 1,505 | 37.7%568 W · 937 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed Auger-Aliassime | 35c | 800$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 380 | 33.9%129 W · 251 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…f868backed Tiafoe | 65c | 619.43$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.77 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tiafoe | 63c | 411.18$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.16 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Tiafoe | 80c | 376.25$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 365 | 57.5%210 W · 155 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x181b…4941backed Tiafoe | 62c | 353.36$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Auger-Aliassime | 44c | 318.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1,020 | 49.9%509 W · 511 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Auger-Aliassime | 38c | 317.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Auger-Aliassime | 38c | 265.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Auger-Aliassime | 34c | 235.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Tiafoe | 63c | 229.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 527 | 44.6%235 W · 292 L | +30.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…da77backed Tiafoe | 66c | 193.18$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Tiafoe | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Tiafoe | 80c | 123.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,773 | 48.6%861 W · 912 L | +28.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Tiafoe | 40c | 95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 3,412 | 39.1%1,335 W · 2,077 L | -11.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Tiafoe | 61c | 82.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 718 | 52.8%379 W · 339 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…4500backed Auger-Aliassime | 39c | 78.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Tiafoe | 41c | 73.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tiafoe | 61c | 67.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…72aebacked Auger-Aliassime | 38c | 65.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Tiafoe | 59c | 59.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d56…2990backed Auger-Aliassime | 41c | 59.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Tiafoe | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3,204 | 40.5%1,299 W · 1,905 L | +28.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Tiafoe | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Tiafoe | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Tiafoe | 63c | 39.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Auger-Aliassime | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 591 | 66.7%394 W · 197 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Tiafoe | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Tiafoe | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)this page
- Frances Tiafoe vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-AliassimeFrances Tiafoe won
- Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime won
- Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.