NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x156eb33744b17d92623a433e9b168cb719213dd966c82f55412d4e9c85ba2f30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Blue Jackets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3ae…3020backed Blue Jackets | 66c | 53,921$35,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,431.89 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Golden Knights | 34c | 37,333$12,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,639.8 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Golden Knights | 35c | 10,982$3,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,163.16 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Golden Knights | 35c | 4,840$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,146.07 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Golden Knights | 34c | 1,029$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.14 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31c…642bbacked Blue Jackets | 74c | 290.75$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…405fbacked Blue Jackets | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…bd8abacked Golden Knights | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights | 39c | 169$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.59 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Blue Jackets | 68c | 145.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Blue Jackets | 60c | 130.35$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Golden Knights | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Blue Jackets | 61c | 79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Blue Jackets | 63c | 54.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Golden Knights | 37c | 53.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…81f7backed Golden Knights | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 276 | 52.2%144 W · 132 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Golden Knights | 34c | 45.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Golden Knights | 39c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Blue Jackets | 65c | 43.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Golden Knights | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Blue Jackets | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…4d00backed Blue Jackets | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Blue Jackets | 64c | 31.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Golden Knights | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Golden Knights | 45c | 24.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Blue Jackets vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Blue Jackets vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.