NHL · resolved market
Blue Jackets vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4da27334b99464013500ed3541b945531affd53f40d78d9ef67172f2806ccd45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 902.53$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.34 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 48c | 512.36$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.43 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 49c | 422.45$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.45 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…73dabacked Under | 53c | 339.62$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 51c | 310.6$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.41 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…7a8abacked Under | 52c | 289.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 49c | 260$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Over | 61c | 219.37$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 192.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked Over | 49c | 140.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3863…ae6abacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 74.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 48c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 52c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 58.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Over | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Over | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…4d00backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 53c | 36.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 32.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blue Jackets vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5this page
- Blue Jackets vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.