MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x157f2d51fea2a402ddc8f6d1cccc39a4ce806d05c3b5508ad21b5c3ed569e895
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 14,104$6,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,273.79 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 7,004$3,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,524.04 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 6,764$3,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,539.49 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75e…96ebbacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 1,875$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb928…5fd7backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 1,688$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 1,453$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.98 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 1,330$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.9 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 1,000$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.54 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 566$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…2a8ebacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 528.3$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 445$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.58 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Boston Red Sox | 75c | 401.64$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 286.05$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.19 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 235.12$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…5f97backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…2f92backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 118.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…ae49backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…2569backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 33.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…c7a4backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 31.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.