Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Nantes vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x158660d9961e3521920dd9eb90863c3e1d7a0f533e2c647db925d2034e5ea0df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…4f48backed Yes | 30c | 13,339$3,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,340.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 13,207$9,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,404.82 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 15c | 4,705$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,022 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1590…9e72backed Yes | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 1,442$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.94 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 54c | 1,280$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.83 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…ab8dbacked No | 72c | 1,123$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 30c | 768$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 690.09$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.95 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 53c | 646.29$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.23 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 3c | 543.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +204.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 365$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.15 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…7985backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 40c | 267.53$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.95 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 29c | 168.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 33c | 166.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 31c | 162$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 71c | 147.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…185dbacked Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 22c | 127.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 30c | 115.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 50c | 109.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 72c | 97.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 91.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 71c | 67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8f…b038backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 71c | 37.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 76c | 27.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 71c | 27.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Nantes vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-11-23?No won
- Will FC Nantes win on 2025-11-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.