Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-11-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9727a5f66173aade3a0a27bbe57d4691c60b9bc7935fce02b424552128da3a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 27c | 17,260$4,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,598.66 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cb…4a0cbacked Yes | 36c | 8,341$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 32c | 4,270$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,898.96 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 29c | 1,264$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.35 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 28c | 1,000$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 43c | 968.22$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.42 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…ab8dbacked No | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 30c | 770.06$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.43 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 40c | 717.07$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 71c | 430.87$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.31 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 34c | 404.95$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.67 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 62c | 375$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked No | 62c | 312.66$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 45c | 224.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.56 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 52c | 190$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 38c | 188$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 41c | 152.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 61c | 147.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 60c | 135$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 38c | 126.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 63c | 125$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 39c | 121.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 25c | 104.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe86…ec62backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 33c | 77.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 47c | 77.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 16c | 69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 77c | 54.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed No | 32c | 52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 39c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked No | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 77c | 32.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 62c | 31.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 61c | 26.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…95d4backed Yes | 72c | 14.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-11-23?this page
- Will FC Nantes vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Nantes win on 2025-11-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.