Tennis · resolved market
Set 3 Winner: Wawrinka vs Berrettini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x159ab8a77b94b68b44f91a856d85d184510badc851562804d42f9ed882a96bb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Berrettiniof Wawrinka, Berrettini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Wawrinka | 4c | 600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 487 | 38.4%187 W · 300 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Wawrinka | 43c | 512$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Berrettini | 56c | 498.82$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.69 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Wawrinka | 51c | 312.18$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.35 | 447 | 51.7%231 W · 216 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Berrettini | 59c | 308.42$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Berrettini | 48c | 299.49$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.06 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Berrettini | 55c | 265.94$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.95 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…8598backed Wawrinka | 39c | 252.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…836dbacked Wawrinka | 41c | 212.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…41f1backed Wawrinka | 47c | 211.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Berrettini | 58c | 180.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Berrettini | 58c | 175$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 346 | 50.6%175 W · 171 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Berrettini | 58c | 175$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Berrettini | 59c | 133.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…4036backed Wawrinka | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Wawrinka | 69c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Berrettini | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Wawrinka | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43f…3b20backed Wawrinka | 43c | 46.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3e…061cbacked Berrettini | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 3 Winner: Wawrinka vs Berrettinithis page
- Set 1 Winner: Wawrinka vs BerrettiniWawrinka won
- Set 2 Winner: Wawrinka vs BerrettiniBerrettini won
- Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Wawrinka (+1.5)Berrettini won
- Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Wawrinka (+2.5)Wawrinka won
- Stan Wawrinka vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Stan Wawrinka vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Wawrinka vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Wimbledon ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Matteo BerrettiniMatteo Berrettini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.