Mls · resolved market
Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x159f16c21dcc9bc1b14828cf2a5aebc69863351a79b727cec20933e701c4d58b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 6,768$5,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.45 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Yes | 26c | 6,153$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.78 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 2,169$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.36 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 74c | 1,196$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.98 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…8b4cbacked Yes | 28c | 703.57$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 25c | 628.32$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 29c | 438$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.02 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 22c | 425.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked No | 75c | 400.07$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.07 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf49…e7f4backed No | 75c | 381.88$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5048…4b29backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…b45fbacked Yes | 28c | 186.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 74c | 142.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 127.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 15c | 93.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 82.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 25c | 81.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b4…f6d1backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 57.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 55.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Yes | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 70c | 36.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 75c | 31.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd12e…27c2backed No | 75c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…4711backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-02-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.