Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63eef1e7ddc30871f858cb33f0951c830162d77bc255cc7e1613f726d7d9bbbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 73c | 29,203$21,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,818.4 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x916f…53babacked No | 51c | 23,186$11,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,790.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…0bd0backed Yes | 50c | 18,155$9,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,150.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 14c | 8,118$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.4 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 13c | 6,134$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.75 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked No | 62c | 4,230$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 40c | 3,921$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364.27 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed No | 16c | 3,302$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.42 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed No | 51c | 3,202$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.01 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed No | 51c | 3,053$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.05 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed No | 51c | 2,510$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.75 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 46c | 2,437$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.87 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 5c | 2,332$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf49…e7f4backed No | 51c | 1,944$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 50c | 1,881$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.33 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 47c | 1,742$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.26 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 48c | 1,413$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.55 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 1,396$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.48 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 47c | 1,269$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.75 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked No | 62c | 750$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 38c | 724.1$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked No | 16c | 708.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 14c | 705.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 25c | 694.33$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.87 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 51c | 647$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.88 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 50c | 631.9$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.39 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Yes | 40c | 625$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 48c | 610.46$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.54 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 13c | 583.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 48c | 480.1$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.56 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked No | 13c | 405.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 13c | 391$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 46c | 380$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Yes | 28c | 320$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 66c | 316.23$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.16 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…dacebacked Yes | 15c | 212.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 15cpaid | +339.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 37c | 211$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.93 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…7207backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.88per pick | 13cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 12c | 173.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…4747backed No | 13c | 172.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed No | 12c | 172.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed No | 53c | 171$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Yes | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68f…3211backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed No | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…b45fbacked Yes | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 49c | 136.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 60c | 121.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c14…ffa5backed No | 52c | 111.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 51c | 99.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 50c | 76.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4a…7045backed No | 52c | 74.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dca…f3cfbacked Yes | 56c | 72.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +72%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…547fbacked Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe1…f730backed Yes | 58c | 67.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…37d5backed Yes | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 49c | 50.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 47c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 51c | 30.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac79…ff6cbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked Yes | 72c | 28.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 49c | 28.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…e49cbacked Yes | 49c | 21.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7838…cd45backed No | 52c | 21.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…bf23backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-02-21?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.