Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3ce92190789c0a1f11bd10d4ed50f46924d23c8768443b49f42ec29ab4a268d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 1,972$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.36 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 13c | 1,486$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.17 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed No | 72c | 1,388$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 11c | 1,310$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.8 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,032$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 41c | 644.05$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 41c | 496.27$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.03 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5048…4b29backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 10c | 430$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 47c | 342.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.26 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Yes | 60c | 167.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…81ecbacked No | 65c | 128.43$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 24c | 123.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 113.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 10c | 112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb648…c2ddbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Yes | 11c | 99.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 31c | 96.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 73c | 95.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 75.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 68c | 75.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 41c | 74.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked No | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…547fbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 53.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked Yes | 57c | 50.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 75c | 46.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 38c | 43.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 37c | 42.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 60c | 41.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb6…76e9backed No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-02-21?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-02-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.