Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International, Qualification: Katie Swan vs Gabriela Ruse
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15aaf439ab6641cd0c12927ad77d017d306b8eedaba94faa272fc0d677215a17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruseof Swan, Ruse
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Swan | 0c | 5,428$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Swan | 26c | 2,044$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.38 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Swan | 17c | 1,448$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.73 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…339ebacked Swan | 44c | 1,150$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.95 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Swan | 8c | 592.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Swan | 26c | 450$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…53b3backed Ruse | 72c | 347.35$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ruse | 78c | 341.37$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Swan | 17c | 298.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Swan | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Swan | 29c | 238.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Swan | 27c | 223.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Swan | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Swan | 21c | 181.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Swan | 23c | 174.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…dd35backed Ruse | 60c | 165.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Ruse | 78c | 160.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Swan | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…77c6backed Swan | 28c | 151.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Swan | 14c | 130.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Ruse | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…046bbacked Ruse | 79c | 123.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 78cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Swan | 28c | 112$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 191 | 29.8%57 W · 134 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Ruse | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Ruse | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Swan | 30c | 81.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Ruse | 66c | 72.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…a332backed Swan | 50c | 58.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Swan | 25c | 43.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ef…18a5backed Ruse | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…6680backed Ruse | 69c | 38.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Ruse | 65c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Ruse | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…576bbacked Ruse | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…98abbacked Ruse | 80c | 31.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Ruse | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Ruse | 75c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 330 | 55.8%184 W · 146 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…3e71backed Ruse | 76c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…47a5backed Ruse | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…1c5ebacked Ruse | 80c | 12.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…eb47backed Ruse | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 79cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…efbbbacked Ruse | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 79cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide International, Qualification: Katie Swan vs Gabriela Rusethis page
- Set 1 Winner: Swan vs RuseSwan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.