Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15c98def500fa151c9806cfed66e16f061ee5f0e1423a90a991739cd7c7df3b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 46c | 379.03$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.74 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…6364backed Yes | 35c | 299.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 282.81$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 22c | 264.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 15c | 174$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 55c | 172.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 172.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 29c | 163.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 160.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 33c | 149.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 67c | 136.55$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 103.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 101.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 37c | 100.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 77c | 98.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 42c | 97.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 65c | 96.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 48c | 92.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 40c | 80.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 30c | 79.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 35c | 79.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 65c | 79.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 47c | 64.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed Yes | 36c | 61.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 63c | 58.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 56.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 57c | 55.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 65c | 54.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 53.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 50.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…0ab4backed Yes | 67c | 43.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 40c | 43.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…4381backed No | 71c | 41.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 71c | 37.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…2ab1backed No | 65c | 34.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 50c | 34.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 30c | 33.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked Yes | 35c | 31.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 67c | 29.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 65c | 28.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 52c | 27.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 71c | 27.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 47c | 26.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed No | 80c | 24.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 23.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 50c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 67c | 22.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…268fbacked Yes | 55c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 64c | 19.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057b…07aebacked No | 72c | 17.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.