Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07dfc4950b61228b6916e29dbd1c8fbb65ee936f37936d4a1be4ffb351cb2b22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 0c | 7,175$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63dc…ecefbacked Yes | 70c | 1,455$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.72 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 968.12$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 12c | 939$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.64 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 10c | 799.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.04 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed No | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 79c | 452.41$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.83 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…545dbacked Yes | 6c | 434.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 427.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed No | 3c | 417.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 48c | 415.59$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.45 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…165ebacked Yes | 20c | 414.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +408.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 308.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.52 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 279.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 10c | 248.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.94 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 12c | 228.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.57 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 208$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 202.44$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 11c | 178.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.36 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea09…33d3backed Yes | 12c | 156.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +758%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 7c | 149.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 143.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 130.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 12c | 105.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…b7e0backed Yes | 14c | 104.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 64c | 102.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1843…affabacked Yes | 11c | 100.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 14c | 98.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 15c | 96.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4008…194fbacked No | 73c | 76.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 78c | 62.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 79c | 61.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 79c | 61.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 18c | 60.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 41c | 37.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 78c | 30.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 14.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.