Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15f74be455e7abc372e0148caccdea61d9f43ebd42b767364200f52376de3682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 76c | 320.86$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.28 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 282.71$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…98e2backed Yes | 49c | 188.39$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 42c | 126.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 34c | 115.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 58c | 98.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 29c | 96.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 69c | 84.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 62c | 82.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 78.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 26c | 76.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 68.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 36c | 63.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 59.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…e793backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf41backed Yes | 39c | 45.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 44.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 41.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 38.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 79c | 37.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 69c | 36.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 66c | 35.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 32.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 31.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 64c | 29.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 37c | 27.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 80c | 26.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 45c | 26.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 76c | 25.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 43c | 25.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 20.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 56c | 20.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 17.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…79ebbacked No | 74c | 14.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.