Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc76e00c01a663383b23552fcd63d578ac9d30f1d6b1eedc5ead57f3055ab39de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf757…db38backed Yes | 35c | 913.62$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.98 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 75c | 778.2$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.18 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 48c | 382.78$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.42 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 378.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 323.52$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 302.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 63c | 294.19$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.7 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 41c | 272.92$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…3a39backed No | 78c | 226.46$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 43c | 222.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 172.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…bfbebacked Yes | 67c | 168.63$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 143.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 19c | 140.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 48c | 133.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 126.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 20c | 124.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…bfa8backed Yes | 17c | 121.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 36c | 120.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 43c | 120.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 23c | 119.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…b02bbacked No | 40c | 113.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 33c | 110.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 110.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…a48dbacked No | 75c | 108.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 102.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed Yes | 27c | 96.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 62c | 94.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 51c | 91.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed No | 65c | 89.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…71a0backed Yes | 46c | 89.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 37c | 84.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…c4a5backed Yes | 25c | 84.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 76.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 52c | 74.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 30c | 73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…b5b2backed Yes | 43c | 70.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…dc81backed Yes | 43c | 70.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…8bf2backed Yes | 43c | 70.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672c…6942backed Yes | 43c | 70.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf8…8634backed Yes | 43c | 70.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 55c | 68.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 47c | 64.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 72c | 63.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 61.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 43c | 61.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 20c | 57.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 32c | 56.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 37c | 55.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 79c | 54.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked No | 48c | 50.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 44c | 49.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 26c | 49.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed Yes | 21c | 48.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…cefebacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 26c | 44.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 62c | 43.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 58c | 42.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 71c | 42.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 32c | 38.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73a…7684backed No | 63c | 38.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes | 31c | 35.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 45c | 34.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ccbbacked No | 68c | 31.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 30.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 65c | 29.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 66c | 28.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4f…8722backed No | 49c | 28.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 67c | 28.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 55c | 27.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes | 39c | 27.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 26.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 68c | 25.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 67c | 25.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 69c | 24.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7798…8b1dbacked No | 52c | 22.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +107%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…60fcbacked No | 59c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…9752backed No | 65c | 20.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 20.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe568…7280backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed No | 72c | 19.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 59c | 16.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 16.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.