AI · resolved market
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 80B in Q1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1604fa74b76bd76813a0c14a30327b82804214e2b50b4270630bc9aa1129ec25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e75…d0e9backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 45c | 336$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.58 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 64c | 312.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.65 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ce…ed1abacked Yes | 7c | 231.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +175.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 14c | 197.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004a…1146backed No | 58c | 94.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked No | 68c | 45.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1929…346bbacked Yes | 56c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 33c | 32.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf90…0668backed No | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +60%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 80B in Q1?this page
- Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 50B in Q1?Yes won
- Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 55B in Q1?Yes won
- Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 60B in Q1?Yes won
- Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 65B in Q1?Yes won
- Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 70B in Q1?Yes won
- Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 75B in Q1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.