Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x163706fdacb628a7e75fc5a74fe2bad40abd16e1ee2806d0a9881e25ede9eed8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,694 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 75c | 2,412$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.98 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 25c | 1,678$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.5 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 24c | 1,600$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.35 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 888.01$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 76c | 664.86$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.21 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 33c | 568$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.44 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 33c | 441.18$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 76c | 409.7$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa08f…44d5backed Over | 32c | 355.94$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 77c | 285.4$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff2…6714backed Under | 68c | 183.15$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d0…2b50backed Under | 68c | 172.79$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 25c | 79.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…bf74backed Over | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Under | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)SC Preußen Münster won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-2.5)SC Preußen Münster won
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-1.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.