Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86122a83937da912d88051de1342d190aba19182b138e4b1380504c11d497419
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,996 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 48c | 2,941$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.97 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 46c | 2,214$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.31 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,980$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 52c | 1,600$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.07 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 42c | 820.74$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.31 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 52c | 818.61$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.31 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 55c | 740$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…e1b2backed Over | 65c | 703.06$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 53c | 675.72$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.72 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 47c | 531.01$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.46 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 65c | 323.08$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.08 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 310.79$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…a2d6backed Over | 75c | 303.89$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 20c | 275.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 56c | 231.33$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.32 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 56c | 213.7$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 51c | 205.76$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…9cd6backed Under | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +265.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 76c | 199$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 48c | 185.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 60c | 166.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…564dbacked Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c4…48e3backed Under | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 55c | 147.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 24c | 103.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 29c | 92.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 82.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 52c | 81.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Over | 54c | 79.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 35c | 71.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 75c | 53.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…f39ebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 43c | 32.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 29.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2f…a3d8backed Under | 66c | 27.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 44c | 25.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 54c | 23.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 54c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…9378backed Over | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 51c | 20.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5this page
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)SC Preußen Münster won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-2.5)SC Preußen Münster won
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-1.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.